The 2026-09-07 measurement window (CORRELATION_REVIEW_0907.md) showed the
consensus tiebreaker was the dominant over-split driver: it ran on 45% of
calls and resolved link/orphan disagreements as "new" ~24/25 of the time,
shattering one Mohegan Park car-alarm job into 9 incidents and opening ~7
incidents from radio checks / roll calls.
Two causes, two fixes:
1. `_inc_summary` gave the model `id|type|loc|units|tags|idle` — no title,
no talkgroup. It literally could not see that two "car alarms, Mohegan
Park Ave/Avenue" incidents on TG 9560 were the same. Now includes the
incident title (the strongest same-event signal) and talkgroup.
2. `_RULES` told the model "orphan when in doubt — conservative is always
correct". For a system that over-splits, that is backwards: a wrong link
is cheap, a duplicate incident is the failure. Rewritten to: prefer link
for a plausible same-talkgroup continuation (low bar), reserve "new" for a
genuinely different event, and explicitly "orphan" non-incidents (radio
checks, roll call, 10-8/10-98, mileage logs).
Plus `_extract_road_ids` now canonicalises street-type synonyms
(Avenue→ave, Street→st, Road→rd, ...), so "Mohegan Park Avenue" and
"Mohegan Park Ave" share a road id — that one difference was splitting the
car-alarm incident.
+tests/test_correlator_115.py. Full c2-core suite green (sandboxed venv).
Bigger levers deferred to follow-ups: the consensus escalation itself (should
a cheap-LLM "orphan" ever reach a tiebreak?), a first-class road-overlap fit
signal in _call_fits_incident, geocode coverage.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Logan CusanoandClaude Sonnet 5
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